Metalpha (NASDAQ: MATH) may be one of the most overlooked high-upside plays in crypto finance heading into its FY2025 annual report. With a unique derivatives-driven model that thrives in both bull and bear markets, MATH has quietly posted a dramatic turnaround—growing revenue 4x and swinging to profitability. As a Bitmain- and Antalpha-backed firm, it has strategic advantages in cost-efficient BTC acquisition, institutional product distribution, and regulatory compliance. The upcoming annual report, expected by early June, could reveal full-year revenues between $60–$80 million with over $18–$24 million in net income—implying 3x–5x upside from current prices if the market re-rates it in line with peers.
This setup makes MATH a rare asymmetric opportunity: it benefits from Bitcoin’s bull cycle via volatility-fueled derivative demand, but is structurally insulated from downside through recurring revenue and balance-sheet strength. With a $5M share buyback, technical breakout underway, and institutional adoption of crypto accelerating, MATH may be on the verge of moving from an under-the-radar microcap to a must-own institutional asset.
This setup makes MATH a rare asymmetric opportunity: it benefits from Bitcoin’s bull cycle via volatility-fueled derivative demand, but is structurally insulated from downside through recurring revenue and balance-sheet strength. With a $5M share buyback, technical breakout underway, and institutional adoption of crypto accelerating, MATH may be on the verge of moving from an under-the-radar microcap to a must-own institutional asset.
Introduction to Metalpha
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (NASDAQ: MATH) is an under-the-radar stock that is poised for significant growth. Unlike traditional Bitcoin mining stocks or exchange-based crypto plays, Metalpha operates w. We as a digital asset wealth management firm specializing in exotic derivatives. This structure allows Metalpha to thrive in both bull and bear markets, making it a unique and compelling investment opportunity in the crypto space. With its annual report just weeks (if not days) away, it’s time to take a deeper look at this equity.
Despite a growing presence in the digital asset sector and a proven ability to generate revenue in both up and down markets, Metalpha remains largely unknown. Many retail and institutional investors are more familiar with high-profile Bitcoin stocks like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA), but Metalpha offers a differentiated and more sustainable business model.
Over the past year, Metalpha has posted remarkable financial results, turning profitable for the first time and growing its revenue fourfold. Yet even with impressive fundamentals, the stock remains significantly undervalued compared to other Bitcoin-related equities. In this article, we’ll analyze what makes MATH an exceptional investment, compare it to giants like MSTR and MARA, and discuss why it could be one of the best BTC-related plays in the market today.
Despite a growing presence in the digital asset sector and a proven ability to generate revenue in both up and down markets, Metalpha remains largely unknown. Many retail and institutional investors are more familiar with high-profile Bitcoin stocks like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA), but Metalpha offers a differentiated and more sustainable business model.
Over the past year, Metalpha has posted remarkable financial results, turning profitable for the first time and growing its revenue fourfold. Yet even with impressive fundamentals, the stock remains significantly undervalued compared to other Bitcoin-related equities. In this article, we’ll analyze what makes MATH an exceptional investment, compare it to giants like MSTR and MARA, and discuss why it could be one of the best BTC-related plays in the market today.
A Bitcoin Play That Doesn’t Need BTC
One of the most compelling aspects of Metalpha is that it’s not directly tied to Bitcoin’s price movements in the way traditional mining or holding companies are. Rather than just accumulating Bitcoin on its balance sheet, Metalpha profits from offering structured derivative products to institutional investors. No matter which direction Bitcoin is headed, Metalpha can generate strong revenues.
Additionally, Metalpha’s strategic partnership with Bitmain, the world’s largest manufacturer of Bitcoin mining hardware, allows it to mine BTC in-house—in essence, buying Bitcoin wholesale at a 20% discount. This is a massive advantage that allows the company to source BTC at lower costs while enhancing profitability.
Derivatives and structured products are essential components of mature financial markets, and Metalpha’s expertise in Bitcoin derivatives gives it a significant competitive edge. Unlike miners, who are forced to liquidate their BTC to cover operational expenses, Metalpha’s business model generates sustainable and recurring revenues from institutional clients seeking exposure to digital assets without direct volatility risk.
Additionally, Metalpha’s strategic partnership with Bitmain, the world’s largest manufacturer of Bitcoin mining hardware, allows it to mine BTC in-house—in essence, buying Bitcoin wholesale at a 20% discount. This is a massive advantage that allows the company to source BTC at lower costs while enhancing profitability.
Derivatives and structured products are essential components of mature financial markets, and Metalpha’s expertise in Bitcoin derivatives gives it a significant competitive edge. Unlike miners, who are forced to liquidate their BTC to cover operational expenses, Metalpha’s business model generates sustainable and recurring revenues from institutional clients seeking exposure to digital assets without direct volatility risk.
The Rise of Institutional Crypto Derivatives
Institutional investors rely on derivatives to hedge risks and optimize allocations in traditional financial markets. As the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors continue to mature, derivatives are increasingly vital to digital asset investing. Hedging downside risks while maintaining upside exposure makes crypto derivatives attractive to hedge funds, family offices, and high-net-worth investors alike.
Metalpha is capitalizing on this trend by offering a suite of highly customized crypto derivatives, allowing investors to engage with Bitcoin and other digital assets in a more sophisticated and controlled manner. With regulatory clarity improving across major jurisdictions, institutional adoption of these financial instruments should keep growing, positioning Metalpha as a key player in digital asset wealth management.
Metalpha is capitalizing on this trend by offering a suite of highly customized crypto derivatives, allowing investors to engage with Bitcoin and other digital assets in a more sophisticated and controlled manner. With regulatory clarity improving across major jurisdictions, institutional adoption of these financial instruments should keep growing, positioning Metalpha as a key player in digital asset wealth management.
Regulatory Landscape and Compliance Strength
One of the biggest challenges facing the crypto market today is regulatory uncertainty. However, Metalpha has positioned itself as a globally compliant, institutional-grade platform by proactively securing the necessary regulatory approvals while operating within clearly defined legal frameworks.
Metalpha’s wholly owned subsidiary, LSQ Capital Ltd, holds Type 1 (virtual assets), Type 4 (securities), and Type 9 (asset management) licenses under the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). This gives institutional investors confidence that Metalpha adheres to strict compliance standards, ensuring transparency and proper risk management.
As global scrutiny over crypto firms increases, Metalpha’s compliance-first approach gives it an edge over competitors operating in regulatory gray zones. As jurisdictions like Hong Kong, the UAE, and the EU continue refining crypto regulations, Metalpha is well-positioned to capitalize on institutional inflows that require fully compliant investment vehicles from day one.
Metalpha’s wholly owned subsidiary, LSQ Capital Ltd, holds Type 1 (virtual assets), Type 4 (securities), and Type 9 (asset management) licenses under the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). This gives institutional investors confidence that Metalpha adheres to strict compliance standards, ensuring transparency and proper risk management.
As global scrutiny over crypto firms increases, Metalpha’s compliance-first approach gives it an edge over competitors operating in regulatory gray zones. As jurisdictions like Hong Kong, the UAE, and the EU continue refining crypto regulations, Metalpha is well-positioned to capitalize on institutional inflows that require fully compliant investment vehicles from day one.
Performance: A Breakout Year With More to Come
Metalpha's financial turnaround has been nothing short of dramatic. For the six months ending September 30, 2024, total revenues hit $19.72 million (nearly 4x revenue growth) from $5.08 million the year prior. The firm also ended in the green, reporting $6.04 million in net income—a stark reversal from the $3.85 million loss recorded a year prior.
This surge in revenues and profits is part of MATH’s larger growth trajectory:
Metalpha’s consistent financial improvement over two years underscores its scalable business model, expanding margins, and the growing institutional adoption of its structured derivative products. The company has built a robust platform capable of serving institutional investors with tailored digital asset investment solutions.
These numbers also suggest that Metalpha is at an inflection point, transitioning from a niche player into a major force in the crypto financial services industry. Its recent profitability reveals that the firm is executing on its vision while still flying under the radar for most market participants.
In addition to strong revenue and profitability growth, Metalpha's Board of Directors has authorized a $5 million share repurchase program over the next 36 months. This signals management’s confidence in the company’s long-term trajectory and its commitment to delivering real shareholder value.
Share buybacks are often a sign that a company believes its stock is undervalued, and given Metalpha’s recent financial performance, this could help support MATH price appreciation while lowering the float (number of outstanding shares).
In addition, Metalpha is slated to release its annual report in the upcoming weeks. Given this positive trajectory and the current bullish momentum behind Bitcoin, there is a significant chance we could see Metalpha’s net income increase substantially (likely providing significant dry powder for its stock price.
This surge in revenues and profits is part of MATH’s larger growth trajectory:
- Mar 31, 2023: $1.75 million in revenue, ($7.03 million) net loss
- Sep 30, 2023: $5.08 million in revenue, ($3.85 million) net loss
- Mar 31, 2024: $11.67 million in revenue, $177,000 net income
- Sep 30, 2024: $19.72 million in revenue, $6.04 million net income
Metalpha’s consistent financial improvement over two years underscores its scalable business model, expanding margins, and the growing institutional adoption of its structured derivative products. The company has built a robust platform capable of serving institutional investors with tailored digital asset investment solutions.
These numbers also suggest that Metalpha is at an inflection point, transitioning from a niche player into a major force in the crypto financial services industry. Its recent profitability reveals that the firm is executing on its vision while still flying under the radar for most market participants.
In addition to strong revenue and profitability growth, Metalpha's Board of Directors has authorized a $5 million share repurchase program over the next 36 months. This signals management’s confidence in the company’s long-term trajectory and its commitment to delivering real shareholder value.
Share buybacks are often a sign that a company believes its stock is undervalued, and given Metalpha’s recent financial performance, this could help support MATH price appreciation while lowering the float (number of outstanding shares).
In addition, Metalpha is slated to release its annual report in the upcoming weeks. Given this positive trajectory and the current bullish momentum behind Bitcoin, there is a significant chance we could see Metalpha’s net income increase substantially (likely providing significant dry powder for its stock price.
Metalpha’s Competitive Advantage in a Crowded Market
While many crypto institutions offer a wide range of trading and investment services, Metalpha has carved out a niche by focusing on structured derivatives tailored to institutional clients. This high degree of specialization sets it apart from retail-centric exchanges like Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) or Binance.
Metalpha’s key competitive advantages in the space include:
As the crypto market matures, more institutions will demand more sophisticated crypto investment vehicles and tools. Metalpha is already ahead of the curve, positioned as a premier provider of customized digital asset solutions for the next wave of institutional adoption.
Metalpha’s key competitive advantages in the space include:
- Institutional investor focus: Unlike retail-focused platforms, Metalpha designs investment solutions specifically tailored to hedge funds, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals looking for custom alternatives and derivatives.
- Strong strategic partnerships: Backing from industry leaders like Bitmain and partnerships with leading firms like Zodia Markets give Metalpha a unique competitive edge in both market access and liquidity.
- Risk management expertise: Traditional crypto investment vehicles are prone to extreme volatility, but Metalpha’s derivatives-based strategies allow clients to lower directional risks while still gaining exposure to digital assets.
As the crypto market matures, more institutions will demand more sophisticated crypto investment vehicles and tools. Metalpha is already ahead of the curve, positioned as a premier provider of customized digital asset solutions for the next wave of institutional adoption.
Strategic Backing From Bitmain and Antalpha
One of Metalpha’s biggest advantages is backing from industry giants Bitmain and Antalpha Technologies (NASDAQ: ANTA). These partnerships provide Metalpha with a unique edge in the market that few competitors can match.
Bitmain, the world’s leading manufacturer of Bitcoin mining hardware, has a 38.6% stake in Metalpha. This key strategic partnership allows Metalpha to structure derivative products that directly benefit from Bitmain’s dominance in the BTC mining supply chain. Metalpha gets access to liquidity and business opportunities unavailable to a standalone crypto financial services firm.
Another major MATH shareholder, Antalpha Technologies, also plays a pivotal role in Metalpha operations by bringing in institutional expertise and capital efficiency. Antalpha has a history of working with crypto mining firms and digital asset holders to optimize allocations, making it a valuable partner in expanding Metalpha’s wealth management solutions.
As global crypto markets continue to evolve, strategic backing from heavyweight firms like these means that Metalpha can pivot and scale rapidly, unlocking long-term value for investors.
Bitmain, the world’s leading manufacturer of Bitcoin mining hardware, has a 38.6% stake in Metalpha. This key strategic partnership allows Metalpha to structure derivative products that directly benefit from Bitmain’s dominance in the BTC mining supply chain. Metalpha gets access to liquidity and business opportunities unavailable to a standalone crypto financial services firm.
Another major MATH shareholder, Antalpha Technologies, also plays a pivotal role in Metalpha operations by bringing in institutional expertise and capital efficiency. Antalpha has a history of working with crypto mining firms and digital asset holders to optimize allocations, making it a valuable partner in expanding Metalpha’s wealth management solutions.
As global crypto markets continue to evolve, strategic backing from heavyweight firms like these means that Metalpha can pivot and scale rapidly, unlocking long-term value for investors.
Of course, Metalpha wouldn’t have secured these key partnerships if not for the firm’s elite leadership. With deep expertise in both traditional finance and digital assets, Metalpha’s A-team is a ‘who’s who’ of institutional veterans, crypto pioneers, and mining tycoons.
Adrian Wang, Metalpha’s CEO & Founder, is a decorated former Wall Street executive with extensive experience in structured finance, derivatives, and digital asset management. Wang previously held key roles at leading financial institutions, giving him the expertise required to bridge traditional and crypto markets.
Other key Metalpha executives include former investment bankers, hedge fund managers, and blockchain specialists from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale, UBS, and Columbia Business School, ensuring Metalpha’s core teams are built on a foundation of financial acumen and Web3 innovation.
The combined expertise of Metalpha’s executive team allows the company to deftly navigate global regulatory challenges, design innovative and competitive crypto derivatives, and attract high-profile institutional clientele.
Adrian Wang, Metalpha’s CEO & Founder, is a decorated former Wall Street executive with extensive experience in structured finance, derivatives, and digital asset management. Wang previously held key roles at leading financial institutions, giving him the expertise required to bridge traditional and crypto markets.
Other key Metalpha executives include former investment bankers, hedge fund managers, and blockchain specialists from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale, UBS, and Columbia Business School, ensuring Metalpha’s core teams are built on a foundation of financial acumen and Web3 innovation.
The combined expertise of Metalpha’s executive team allows the company to deftly navigate global regulatory challenges, design innovative and competitive crypto derivatives, and attract high-profile institutional clientele.
Middle East Expansion is a Game-Changer
Metalpha is not only capitalizing on Western crypto markets—it’s also making significant inroads into emerging digital asset markets in the Middle East.
By expanding into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through joint ventures with Gewan Holding and Zodia Markets, Metalpha is entrenching itself in one of the world’s fastest-growing digital asset hubs. Dubai and the UAE have quickly become one of the world’s most crypto-friendly regulatory environments, making this a turnkey growth opportunity for Metalpha.
Meanwhile, nearby Abu Dhabi’s crypto-friendly regulations and growing institutional capital also make it an ideal gateway for Metalpha’s structured products to reach new high-net-worth clients.
By expanding into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through joint ventures with Gewan Holding and Zodia Markets, Metalpha is entrenching itself in one of the world’s fastest-growing digital asset hubs. Dubai and the UAE have quickly become one of the world’s most crypto-friendly regulatory environments, making this a turnkey growth opportunity for Metalpha.
Meanwhile, nearby Abu Dhabi’s crypto-friendly regulations and growing institutional capital also make it an ideal gateway for Metalpha’s structured products to reach new high-net-worth clients.
The Bigger Picture of Crypto Derivatives
The crypto markets have evolved significantly over the past decade, shifting from a speculative, retail-driven ecosystem to one shaped by institutional participants. A major driver has been the rise of crypto (and specifically, BTC) derivatives. Just as in traditional financial markets, derivatives give traders and investors tools to hedge risk, boost liquidity, and manage exposure.
Metalpha stands at the forefront of this transition, offering bespoke structured products that help institutional investors navigate the volatility inherent to digital assets. By enabling exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies without requiring direct ownership, Metalpha makes digital assets more accessible and manageable for institutions wary of regulatory and custody risks.
As Bitcoin ETF inflows rise (e.g., NASDAQ: IBIT), proposals for digital strategic reserves gain traction, and regulatory clarity improves, the demand for derivative-based BTC investment strategies will only grow. Metalpha can capitalize on this trend by providing the sophisticated financial infrastructure needed for crypto’s next stage of mainstream adoption.
Metalpha stands at the forefront of this transition, offering bespoke structured products that help institutional investors navigate the volatility inherent to digital assets. By enabling exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies without requiring direct ownership, Metalpha makes digital assets more accessible and manageable for institutions wary of regulatory and custody risks.
As Bitcoin ETF inflows rise (e.g., NASDAQ: IBIT), proposals for digital strategic reserves gain traction, and regulatory clarity improves, the demand for derivative-based BTC investment strategies will only grow. Metalpha can capitalize on this trend by providing the sophisticated financial infrastructure needed for crypto’s next stage of mainstream adoption.
Bitcoin’s Macro Tailwinds and Metalpha’s Long-Term Outlook
2045’s projected global asset value (MicroStrategy)
The Bull Case: How BTC’s Rebound Could Benefit MATH
While Metalpha’s strength lies in its ability to generate revenue in both bull and bear markets, powerful new tailwinds are building, including the very real possibility of a BTC price surge to new all-time highs over the next 12–24 months.
Standard Chartered has doubled down on its $200,000+ BTC forecast, which it thinks will be driven by ETF inflows, institutional allocation shifts, and macroeconomic instability. BitQuant has suggested that BTC could surpass $250,000 in 2025 alone, especially if geopolitical turmoil or continued fiat debasement accelerates demand for digital assets. Other speculative price models, including gold comparisons, forecast long-term BTC prices from $400,000 to $1 million.
For Metalpha, this bullish backdrop could be a massive price lever. Here’s why:
1.Rising Institutional Demand Drives Volume
As BTC prices increase, more institutional investors will seek hedging tools and yield-generating strategies to manage their exposure. This plays directly into Metalpha’s core strength: building structured derivatives for institutions. If BTC’s market cap doubles or triples, this could translate to exponential growth in demand for Metalpha’s offerings.
2.BTC Volatility Fuels MATH Revenue
Surging prices mean higher implied volatility, which is key to pricing derivatives. Higher volatility is a revenue driver for Metalpha, which profits from premiums and bespoke options structuring. As BTC approaches new all-time highs, Metalpha’s yield-enhancing products are likely to become even more attractive to sophisticated investors.
3.Repricing Across BTC-Linked Equities
In prior bull markets, companies with even marginal Bitcoin exposure saw massive returns, which led to analyst reratings. With its deep involvement in institutional crypto markets and Bitmain-backed operations, Metalpha is likely to be part of this broader rerating, especially as investors seek differentiated plays outside of overbought tickers like MSTR and COIN.
4.Strategic Tailwinds from Bitmain and Antalpha
A rising Bitcoin tide lifts all boats—but Metalpha’s partnerships with mining giant Bitmain and capital allocator Antalpha position the company to benefit disproportionately from the upcoming rerating wave. As asset flows increase, Metalpha will gain access to discounted BTC and a wider distribution network for its derivatives products.
5.Reversion to Historical Highs—And Beyond
With MATH still trading well below its all-time intraday high of around $15, a strong Bitcoin rally could catalyze investor interest and technical momentum. Even a conservative reversion to the 50% Fibonacci retracement would represent a nearly 3x return. In a true bull scenario, where Metalpha continues to post breakout earnings during a booming BTC market, the upside potential is difficult to ignore.
In short, while Metalpha doesn’t need Bitcoin to rally to thrive, the anticipated surge in BTC’s price could serve as rocket fuel for MATH. For investors seeking leveraged exposure to the next Bitcoin bull cycle—but with the added insulation of recurring revenue and institutional utility—Metalpha may offer one of the most asymmetric opportunities in the market.
The Future: Institutional BTC Adoption Trends
Looking at the bigger picture, Metalpha is not just a short-term play on crypto’s resurgence. This is a company well-positioned for long-term growth. The intersection of institutional capital, sophisticated financial products, and a maturing regulatory environment creates the ideal conditions for Metalpha to thrive.
And as the global financial ecosystem increasingly integrates digital assets, Metalpha has a very real opportunity to become a major global force in BTC and crypto wealth management.
This firm is not just riding the wave of institutional BTC adoption—it’s actively expanding its offerings to meet the rigorous demands of serious investors.
Metalpha is expected to introduce new derivative structures tailored to Bitcoin ETF holders, hedge funds, and global family offices. And as regulatory clarity continues to improve, Metalpha is well-positioned to scale its operations beyond Asia and the Middle East into Western markets.
Valuation Gap: How Metalpha (MATH) Stacks Up
Despite its rapid revenue growth and profitability, Metalpha remains significantly undervalued compared to its industry peers:
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): Market cap of $89 billion; holds 439,000 BTC
- Marathon Digital (MARA): Market cap of $10 billion; holds 44,394 BTC
- Metaplanet Inc. (3350.T). 4,800% year-over-year growth; holds 7,800 BTC
- Metalpha (MATH): Market cap of just $103.6 million, with higher revenue growth and a profitable business model.
Simply put, the market is still pricing MATH as if it were a speculative microcap, despite its strong fundamentals and strategic partnerships. With a 10–15x earnings multiple, however, Metalpha could easily be worth 4x to 10x its current valuation.
Antalpha (ANTA): MATH’s Partner Microstock
It’s impossible to tell the story of Metalpha without discussing Antalpha. On May 14, ANTA hit the Nasdaq, raising around $49 million at $12.80 a share. Notably, Antalpha is Bitmain’s primary financing partner, with contractual right-of-first-refusal on all customer loans.
Antalpha owns around a quarter of Metalpha’s float, with other Bitmain-affiliated entities holding nearly a third. In other words, any excitement around ANTA could ripple into MATH. It also helps that Antalpha’s prospectus reads like a post-halving wish list for Bitcoin miners:
- Attractive balance sheet: A $1.6 billion loan book, 97% collateralized with BTC or ASIC rigs (see Antalpha’s Form F-1 filing).
- Growth that’s hard to ignore: Antalpha’s 2024 revenues surged 321% to $47.5 million, while net income flipped from the red to a $4.4 million profit.
- Geographic advantage: Around 75% of the credit sits in Asia, where Bitcoin miners are aggressively updating mining operations after April’s block-reward halving.
At its current share price, ANTA is valued at around 5–6x trailing sales, a modest multiple for a capital-light lender with deep vertical integration into Bitmain’s hardware pipeline. With BTC on the cusp of breaching new all-time highs and macro tailwinds building for a new bull cycle, ANTA could ride a surge in mining demand, credit appetite, and investor enthusiasm.
Antalpha’s business model is tight and efficient: Bitmain sells an S-series rig, Antalpha finances the buyer, and Bitmain effectively captures margin twice—once on hardware, once through affiliated lending economics.
Antalpha’s IPO filing also hints at exporting this playbook to AI-GPU financing—a market worth $18 billion in 2023 and projected to balloon beyond $110 billion by 2031. This far outpaces the $9 billion ASIC miner space Antalpha currently serves, which is only forecast to hit $27 billion by 2031.
Interestingly, much of Antalpha’s Bitcoin-backed lending is underwritten by Northstar, a capital provider now held in an irrevocable trust whose sole beneficiary is Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu.
In other words, Bitmain generates demand, Northstar supplies capital, and Wu-aligned entities like Antalpha and Metalpha benefit on both sides of the deal—locking credit flow, hardware sales, and strategic upside into a self-reinforcing loop.
Market Reaction to MATH’s Potential
Following its FY2024 earnings report, MATH saw a sharp rally, reflecting investor enthusiasm for its nearly 4x higher revenue, the company’s swing to profitability, and the announcement of a $5 million share buyback plan.
Here’s what the weekly candlestick chart looked like by May 21, 2025:
As you can see, MATH is rapidly reapproaching a multi-year high of around $5.00, and the current price action is well above the 50-, 100-, and 200-week moving averages. MATH is still in the lowest Fibonacci retracement level (below 23.6%), and a breakout into the 38.2% retracement or up to the 50% retracement would represent a 226% to 290% gain.
What This Means For Watchlists
Simply put, Metalpha’s strong financial performance is finally being recognized by the market, with its stock breaking out of a multi-year downtrend. The current price action suggests:
- Growing institutional interest as the company’s fundamentals rapidly improve and continue to make headlines.
- Technical confirmation of a new uptrend, reinforcing the notion that Metalpha may be entering a sustained bull phase aligned with the BTC summer and end-of-year cycle.
- Potential for further upside as the company’s relative valuation remains very low compared to its overbought and potentially overpriced peers.
The impending bullish breakout, coupled with Metalpha’s strategic partnerships and robust earnings, makes a compelling case for continued momentum. Investors looking for early-stage exposure to a rising crypto financial services firm may find MATH is at a pivotal turning point.
Notably, MATH’s all-time high (ATH) was slightly above $15. That’s a nearly 6x return at the current share price, even if MATH only retests its previous ATH.
Quick stat sheet: ANTA & MATH comparison
If you care more about fundamentals and prefer raw numbers, here are the headline metrics that will likely frame any valuation of ANTA or revaluation of MATH:
Looking ahead: When to pay attention
With Alpha's IPO price action setting the stage for the first real price tag on Bitmain’s finance arm and BTC-lending business models, the next few months will shape how investors value both ANTA and its sister stock, MATH. Here’s what to watch on the calendar:
The Pivot: BTC to MATH Before Crypto Winter
ANTA’s post-IPO pullback to its debut price range is typical of new stock debuts. However, sister company Metalpha’s current share price reflects an interesting opportunity as MATH positions itself as a leveraged Bitcoin play.
MATH shares are correlated with BTC, but they have stronger fundamentals beyond the price action and direction of the underlying asset. This gives MATH an edge during downturns, as it isn't entirely at the mercy of Bitcoin's market fluctuations.
Looking ahead, after the anticipated crypto summer of 2025, experts predict a significant crypto winter that will shift market sentiment. And as BTC prices become more volatile, Metalpha stands to benefit from a strategic reallocation.
As MATH's business model offers a more robust foundation for long-term growth, its performance in the coming months will likely decouple it from the ebb and flow of Bitcoin’s price action.
Price Targets for MATH: A Valuation Ripple Effect
With ANTA trading around 5–6x trailing sales, investors may soon recalibrate their assumptions for MATH, especially considering Bitmain’s consolidated ecosystem and the sizeable ownership stake held between a Bitmain affiliate and Antalpha.
Let’s apply this same logic to MATH’s latest earnings report: $19.7 million in H1 FY 2025 revenue (annualized: ~$39.4 million) and $6 million in net income for the half year.
Implied Valuation Scenarios for MATH
If public market sentiment assigns Metalpha even a conservative 4x sales multiple—below Antalpha’s 5–6x—it could justify a $157 million valuation, or roughly $4.09 per share, based on 38.37 million shares outstanding. At 5–6x multiples, the target MATH price goes up to $5.10–$6.13 per share.
That’s a notable gap from where MATH currently trades, especially given:
- Relative profit superiority: MATH's over 30% net margin outpaces Antalpha’s 9%, offering a cleaner fee-based income profile.
- Liquidity tailwinds: MATH’s higher float and volume could make it a more accessible play for institutions tracking ANTA post-IPO.
- Technical breakouts: TradingView has already flagged MATH a “Strong Buy” as it broke through major resistance levels.
If Antalpha successfully extends its financing template beyond ASIC miners to GPU-backed credit, expanding its total addressable market (TAM) and valuation multiples, it could further raise the ceiling on perceived value for Metalpha’s yield-generation platform, especially if there’s product co-development or structured-product bundling.
The Bull Case: MATH’s Upcoming Annual Report
While Antalpha’s IPO established the first market multiple for Bitmain’s financial arm, Metalpha’s full-year 2024 report—expected in late May—could be MATH’s true revaluation inflection point.
Because the six-month snapshot ending September 30, 2024, showed $6 million in net income on $19.7 million in revenues, and that was before BTC broke above $100,000 and volatility returned to the crypto markets.
If Metalpha capitalized on those tailwinds in the latter half of FY 2025, the company could be on track to report $60–80 million in annual revenues and $18–24 million in net income, assuming it maintains its over 30% margin profile.
Let’s run through a few valuation scenarios:
Even the midrange scenario ($70M revenue and $21M net income at 15x earnings) puts MATH in the $8–9 per share range, more than triple its current price. And that's before layering in additional momentum drivers:
- A positive correlation trade with ANTA
- Inclusion in more institutional crypto-equity baskets
- Structured note innovation and cross-sell with Antalpha’s lending base
- Potential upside revisions in guidance or product mix
Bottom line: If Metalpha’s FY2025 report even approaches these figures, investors won’t just be reassessing MATH—they’ll be chasing it.
Risks worth remembering
Of course, Antalpha’s IPO and its potential positive impact on MATH only matter if it holds up under scrutiny. For all its promise, Antalpha’s success story could be derailed by three identifiable risk factors:
- Regional concentration: 77% of Antalpha’s loans sit with Asian borrowers, so a sudden policy change or liquidity crunch in the region could show up in asset quality first.
- Related-party funding: Antalpha’s BTC-margin book relies heavily on the Northstar trust, which concentrates counterparty risk into a single affiliate.
- Bitcoin drawdowns: A sharp slide in BTC prices would compress loan-to-value cushions for Antalpha while dulling derivative demand for Metalpha.
The Market Is Sleeping on Metalpha
With its low market cap, strong earnings growth, and a derivative-driven business model that can generate profits regardless of BTC price action, Metalpha (NASDAQ: MATH) is a hidden gem in the crypto investment landscape.
As the next Bitcoin bull market heats up, Metalpha stock could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. MATH remains one of the most undervalued BTC-related equities in the market, and as more investors discover its potential, a significant re-rating is likely.
Investors looking for a high-upside, institutional-grade crypto play should consider adding MATH to their watchlists before the broader market catches on.
Disclaimers
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. The content reflects the author's views based on publicly available information but does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Cryptocurrency and equity investments carry risks, including market volatility and potential loss of capital. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Disclosure & Disclaimer Statement
Ownership Disclosure
As of the date this content is published, I, the owner/operator of this website: www.crg.ai
hold a long position in the publicly traded securities of Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: MATH). I may buy or sell shares at any time without notice.
No Compensation for Report
The report linked or posted on this website regarding Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: MATH) was not commissioned, purchased, or solicited by me or this website. I did not receive any form of direct or indirect compensation—monetary or otherwise—for publishing or sharing this report. I am merely reposting or referencing it for informational and educational purposes.
Third-Party Content Disclaimer
This report was authored by a third party not affiliated with this website. I make no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information, forward-looking statements, or opinions contained within. Readers are encouraged to verify all claims independently and consider the source of the report.
Investment Risk & No Investment Advice
The information presented on this website, including this report, is provided strictly for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities. It should not be construed as personalized investment advice or a recommendation to make any specific investment decision. Investing in securities is inherently risky and may result in the loss of your entire investment.
Compliance with SEC Rule 17(b)
In accordance with Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933, while I have not been compensated by any third party to distribute or promote this report, I am disclosing my ownership in the security mentioned. I am committed to full transparency regarding any and all positions held or compensation received related to any content posted on this website.
Forward-Looking Statements Warning
Any statements contained in the report that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements as defined under federal securities laws. Such statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are encouraged to consult with a qualified investment advisor or legal counsel before making investment decisions.
Contact for Questions
For questions or concerns regarding this disclosure, please contact:
Sergei Stetsenko, CEO
www.crg.ai
s.serge@gmail.com
Ownership Disclosure
As of the date this content is published, I, the owner/operator of this website: www.crg.ai
hold a long position in the publicly traded securities of Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: MATH). I may buy or sell shares at any time without notice.
No Compensation for Report
The report linked or posted on this website regarding Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: MATH) was not commissioned, purchased, or solicited by me or this website. I did not receive any form of direct or indirect compensation—monetary or otherwise—for publishing or sharing this report. I am merely reposting or referencing it for informational and educational purposes.
Third-Party Content Disclaimer
This report was authored by a third party not affiliated with this website. I make no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information, forward-looking statements, or opinions contained within. Readers are encouraged to verify all claims independently and consider the source of the report.
Investment Risk & No Investment Advice
The information presented on this website, including this report, is provided strictly for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities. It should not be construed as personalized investment advice or a recommendation to make any specific investment decision. Investing in securities is inherently risky and may result in the loss of your entire investment.
Compliance with SEC Rule 17(b)
In accordance with Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933, while I have not been compensated by any third party to distribute or promote this report, I am disclosing my ownership in the security mentioned. I am committed to full transparency regarding any and all positions held or compensation received related to any content posted on this website.
Forward-Looking Statements Warning
Any statements contained in the report that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements as defined under federal securities laws. Such statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are encouraged to consult with a qualified investment advisor or legal counsel before making investment decisions.
Contact for Questions
For questions or concerns regarding this disclosure, please contact:
Sergei Stetsenko, CEO
www.crg.ai
s.serge@gmail.com