If you follow blockchain companies or the broader crypto markets, then you’re about to get a rare public valuation for Bitcoin-backed lending. On May 13th, Bitmain—the world’s largest manufacturer of Antminer Bitcoin-mining rigs—will list its in-house lender, Antalpha.
The Bitmain subsidiary’s Nasdaq debut (NASDAQ: ANTA) will only comprise 3.85 million shares, not to mention a non-binding indication of interest from Tether may already account for half of them.
At the expected midrange of $ 12 per share, that’s a modest $ 46 million raise—yet the deal could establish a public market multiple for an almost entirely private business model: Bitcoin-secured credit.
Antalpha’s IPO this week means it might also be time to reexamine its publicly traded sister company, Metalpha (NASDAQ: MATH).
The Bitmain subsidiary’s Nasdaq debut (NASDAQ: ANTA) will only comprise 3.85 million shares, not to mention a non-binding indication of interest from Tether may already account for half of them.
At the expected midrange of $ 12 per share, that’s a modest $ 46 million raise—yet the deal could establish a public market multiple for an almost entirely private business model: Bitcoin-secured credit.
Antalpha’s IPO this week means it might also be time to reexamine its publicly traded sister company, Metalpha (NASDAQ: MATH).
Antalpha (ANTA): a micro IPO with macro implications
First off, Antalpha’s prospectus reads like a post-halving wish list for Bitcoin miners:
At the indicated ANTA share price range ($ 11−13), Antalpha will list at roughly 5−6x trailing sales. With Bitcoin trading north of $ 104,000 and shaping up for a new bull cycle, this timing is not accidental.
- Balance-sheet scale: A $ 1.6 billion loan book, 97% collateralized with BTC or ASIC rigs (see Antalpha’s Form F-1 filing).
- Growth that’s hard to ignore: Antalpha’s 2024 revenue surged 321% to $ 47.5 million, while net income flipped from the red to a $ 4.4 million profit.
- Geographic skew: Around 75% of the credit sits in Asia, where Bitcoin miners are aggressively updating mining operations after April’s block-reward halving.
At the indicated ANTA share price range ($ 11−13), Antalpha will list at roughly 5−6x trailing sales. With Bitcoin trading north of $ 104,000 and shaping up for a new bull cycle, this timing is not accidental.
Bitmain’s circular revenue loop
Antalpha isn’t just a vendor-agnostic lender—it's contractually Bitmain’s primary financing partner with right-of-first-refusal on all customer loans.
Here’s how it works: the hardware manufacturer sells an S-series rig, Antalpha finances the buyer, and Bitmain captures margin twice. Antalpha’s prospectus even hints at expanding the template to AI-GPU financing, a total addressable market multiples larger than the ASIC-miner market, valued at roughly $ 9 billion in 2024 and forecast to hit $ 27 billion by 2031.
By comparison, the AI-GPU segment that Antalpha may finance was already worth $ 18 billion in 2023 and is projected to exceed $ 110 billion by 2031.
Most of Antalpha’s BTC-margin loans continue to be underwritten by Northstar, an affiliate now held inside an irrevocable trust whose trustee and sole beneficiary is Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu.
In other words, Northstar supplies loan capital, Bitmain generates hardware demand via its rig sales pipeline, and Wu’s trust captures economics on both sides. This arrangement locks credit supply, hardware orders, and founder upside into a single, self-reinforcing loop.
Here’s how it works: the hardware manufacturer sells an S-series rig, Antalpha finances the buyer, and Bitmain captures margin twice. Antalpha’s prospectus even hints at expanding the template to AI-GPU financing, a total addressable market multiples larger than the ASIC-miner market, valued at roughly $ 9 billion in 2024 and forecast to hit $ 27 billion by 2031.
By comparison, the AI-GPU segment that Antalpha may finance was already worth $ 18 billion in 2023 and is projected to exceed $ 110 billion by 2031.
Most of Antalpha’s BTC-margin loans continue to be underwritten by Northstar, an affiliate now held inside an irrevocable trust whose trustee and sole beneficiary is Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu.
In other words, Northstar supplies loan capital, Bitmain generates hardware demand via its rig sales pipeline, and Wu’s trust captures economics on both sides. This arrangement locks credit supply, hardware orders, and founder upside into a single, self-reinforcing loop.
Metalpha (MATH): the quiet derivative play
While Antalpha’s credit model may capture immediate IPO attention, its publicly traded sister company, Metalpha, may offer the more intriguing re-rating story.
Because Antalpha owns 24.1% of Metalpha, while Bitmain entities account for another 38.6%, any market enthusiasm for Antalpha could also lift MATH’s share price.
For context, Metalpha earned $ 6 million on $ 19.7 million in revenue in the 6 months ending on Sept. 30, 2024. Notably, Metalpha markets structured Bitcoin yield products, mainly to the same miners that Antalpha finances.
If trading desks decide that Antalpha’s 9% net margin deserves more than a single-digit sales multiple, they’ll likely revisit the stale multiples they’ve applied to Metalpha’s fee-based derivatives earnings.
By the way, here’s what TradingView’s automated technical analysis engine thinks about MATH’s share price as of May 12, 2025:
Because Antalpha owns 24.1% of Metalpha, while Bitmain entities account for another 38.6%, any market enthusiasm for Antalpha could also lift MATH’s share price.
For context, Metalpha earned $ 6 million on $ 19.7 million in revenue in the 6 months ending on Sept. 30, 2024. Notably, Metalpha markets structured Bitcoin yield products, mainly to the same miners that Antalpha finances.
If trading desks decide that Antalpha’s 9% net margin deserves more than a single-digit sales multiple, they’ll likely revisit the stale multiples they’ve applied to Metalpha’s fee-based derivatives earnings.
By the way, here’s what TradingView’s automated technical analysis engine thinks about MATH’s share price as of May 12, 2025:
That’s a pretty strong recommendation! If you’re wondering why TradingView is so bullish on MATH, here’s the weekly view for all you charters out there:
As you can see, MATH is nearly 86% below its all-time intra-day high of $ 15.68 back in late 2023, and it’s recently broken above its weekly 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages.
Quick stat sheet: ANTA & MATH comparison
If you care more about fundamentals and prefer the raw numbers behind both companies, here are the headline metrics that will likely frame any upcoming valuation of ANTA or revaluation of MATH:
Looking ahead: When to pay attention
With An Alpha's upcoming IPO setting the first real price tag on Bitmain’s finance arm—and BTC-lending business models—the next few months will shape how investors value both ANTA and its sister stock, MATH. Here’s what to watch on the calendar:
Price Targets for MATH: A Valuation Ripple Effect
With Antalpha (NASDAQ: ANTA) pricing its IPO at roughly 5−6x trailing sales, investors may soon recalibrate their assumptions for Metalpha (NASDAQ: MATH)—especially considering Bitmain’s consolidated ecosystem and the 62.7% ownership stake held between Bitmain and Antalpha.
Let’s apply the same logic to MATH’s latest numbers: $19.7 million in H1 FY 2025 revenue (annualized: ~$39.4 million) and $6 million in net income for the half year.
Implied Valuation Scenarios for MATH
If public market sentiment assigns Metalpha even a conservative 4x sales multiple—below Antalpha’s 5−6x—it could justify a $ 157 million valuation, or roughly $ 4.09 per share, based on 38.37 million shares outstanding. At 5x or 6x multiples, that target price expands toward the $ 5.10-$ 6.13 range.
That’s a notable gap from where MATH currently trades, especially given:
- Relative profit superiority: MATH’s 30%+ net margin outpaces Antalpha’s 9%, offering a cleaner fee-based income profile.
- Liquidity tailwinds: MATH’s higher float and volume could make it a more accessible trade for institutions tracking Antalpha post-IPO.
- Technical breakouts: TradingView already flagged MATH with a "Strong Buy," as it broke through major resistance levels.
Importantly, if Antalpha succeeds in extending its financing template to GPU-backed credit—expanding its TAM and valuation multiples—it could further raise the ceiling on perceived value for Metalpha’s yield-generation platform, especially if product co-development or structured-product bundling occurs between the two.
The Bull Case: Implications of MATH’s Annual Report
While Antalpha’s IPO establishes the first market multiple for Bitmain’s financial arm, Metalpha’s (MATH) full-year report—expected late May—could be the true valuation inflection point.
Why? Because the six-month snapshot ending September 30, 2024, already showed $ 6 million in net income on $ 19.7 million in revenue—and that was before Bitcoin surged above $ 100,000 and volatility returned to crypto markets.
If Metalpha capitalized on those tailwinds in the back half of FY2025, the company could be on track to report $ 60−80 million in annual revenue and $ 18−24 million in net income, assuming it maintains or expands its 30%+ margin profile.
Why? Because the six-month snapshot ending September 30, 2024, already showed $ 6 million in net income on $ 19.7 million in revenue—and that was before Bitcoin surged above $ 100,000 and volatility returned to crypto markets.
If Metalpha capitalized on those tailwinds in the back half of FY2025, the company could be on track to report $ 60−80 million in annual revenue and $ 18−24 million in net income, assuming it maintains or expands its 30%+ margin profile.
Even the midrange scenario ($ 70M revenue, $ 21M net income at 15x earnings) puts MATH in the $ 8−9 per share territory—more than triple its current price.
And that’s before layering in additional momentum drivers:
Bottom line: if the FY2025 report even approaches these figures, investors won’t just be reassessing MATH—they'll be chasing it.
And that’s before layering in additional momentum drivers:
- A positive correlation trade with ANTA
- Inclusion in more institutional crypto-equity baskets
- Structured note innovation and cross-sell with Antalpha’s lending base
- Potential upside revisions in guidance or product mix
Bottom line: if the FY2025 report even approaches these figures, investors won’t just be reassessing MATH—they'll be chasing it.
Risks worth remembering
Of course, Antalpha’s upcoming IPO and its potential positive impact on sister stock MATH only matter if it holds up under scrutiny. For all its promise, Antalpha’s success story could be derailed by three identifiable risk factors:
- Regional concentration: 77% of Antalpha’s loans sit with Asian borrowers, so a sudden policy change or liquidity crunch in the region could show up in asset quality first.
- Related-party funding: Antalpha’s BTC-margin book relies heavily on the Northstar trust, which concentrates counterparty risk into a single affiliate.
- BTC drawdowns: A sharp slide in Bitcoin prices would compress loan-to-value cushions for Antalpha while dulling derivative demand for Metalpha.
The bottom line
Antalpha’s float may be tiny, but the signal its upcoming IPO sends is big: Bitmain’s financial rails will soon be as investable as its mining hardware.
For investors who track crypto-equity connections, Antalpha’s NASDAQ debut (ANTA) offers a real multiple on Bitcoin-secured credit. It also gives the market a compelling reason to take a second look at Metalpha’s (MATH) derivatives franchise.
Simply put, keep both tickers on your watchlist, because price action in one could set the stage for the other company as well.
Disclosures: All the information in this article is sourced from SEC filings, company press releases, and mainstream crypto news reports dated May 6–12, 2025. This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
For investors who track crypto-equity connections, Antalpha’s NASDAQ debut (ANTA) offers a real multiple on Bitcoin-secured credit. It also gives the market a compelling reason to take a second look at Metalpha’s (MATH) derivatives franchise.
Simply put, keep both tickers on your watchlist, because price action in one could set the stage for the other company as well.
Disclosures: All the information in this article is sourced from SEC filings, company press releases, and mainstream crypto news reports dated May 6–12, 2025. This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
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hold a long position in the publicly traded securities of Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: MATH). I may buy or sell shares at any time without notice.
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The information presented on this website, including this report, is provided strictly for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities. It should not be construed as personalized investment advice or a recommendation to make any specific investment decision. Investing in securities is inherently risky and may result in the loss of your entire investment.
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In accordance with Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933, while I have not been compensated by any third party to distribute or promote this report, I am disclosing my ownership in the security mentioned. I am committed to full transparency regarding any and all positions held or compensation received related to any content posted on this website.
Forward-Looking Statements Warning
Any statements contained in the report that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements as defined under federal securities laws. Such statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are encouraged to consult with a qualified investment advisor or legal counsel before making investment decisions.
Contact for Questions
For questions or concerns regarding this disclosure, please contact:
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Ownership Disclosure
As of the date this content is published, I, the owner/operator of this website: www.crg.ai
hold a long position in the publicly traded securities of Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: MATH). I may buy or sell shares at any time without notice.
No Compensation for Report
The report linked or posted on this website regarding Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: MATH) was not commissioned, purchased, or solicited by me or this website. I did not receive any form of direct or indirect compensation—monetary or otherwise—for publishing or sharing this report. I am merely reposting or referencing it for informational and educational purposes.
Third-Party Content Disclaimer
This report was authored by a third party not affiliated with this website. I make no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information, forward-looking statements, or opinions contained within. Readers are encouraged to verify all claims independently and consider the source of the report.
Investment Risk & No Investment Advice
The information presented on this website, including this report, is provided strictly for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities. It should not be construed as personalized investment advice or a recommendation to make any specific investment decision. Investing in securities is inherently risky and may result in the loss of your entire investment.
Compliance with SEC Rule 17(b)
In accordance with Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933, while I have not been compensated by any third party to distribute or promote this report, I am disclosing my ownership in the security mentioned. I am committed to full transparency regarding any and all positions held or compensation received related to any content posted on this website.
Forward-Looking Statements Warning
Any statements contained in the report that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements as defined under federal securities laws. Such statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are encouraged to consult with a qualified investment advisor or legal counsel before making investment decisions.
Contact for Questions
For questions or concerns regarding this disclosure, please contact:
Sergei Stetsenko, CEO
www.crg.ai
s.serge@gmail.com